What the blackout is. From the second Saturday before an FOMC meeting until the Thursday after the decision, Federal Reserve officials stop speaking publicly about monetary policy — no speeches, interviews or comments on the outlook.
Why it exists. Formalised in 2011, it prevents individual officials from moving markets or signalling the outcome in the run-up to the vote.
Why it matters. One source of surprise is switched off: with no fresh guidance, the market trades on positioning and incoming data alone. Expectations often settle during the window and reprice sharply at the decision.
Hawkish surprise
Higher rates / fewer cuts than expected, or a tougher tone.
Typically risk-off: stocks down, dollar up, gold pressured, yields up.
As expected
Decision matches what markets already priced in.
Usually muted on the number — the move comes from the tone and the projections.
Dovish surprise
Lower rates / more cuts than expected, or a softer tone.
Typically risk-on: stocks up, dollar down, gold supported, yields down.
The current Market Meter reading for reference — this is the market state heading into the meeting. The meter is computed independently; the Fed schedule does not influence it.
